Abstract: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are emerging for last-mile freight delivery within urban co-modality frameworks, but their energy consumption varies significantly with both UAV design variables (own weight, payload, speed, mission profile) and atmospheric factors (air density, temperature, wind speed and direction, rainfall intensity). This poster presents an analytical, physics-based power consumption model for delivery UAVs, adapted from established models and extended to include all flight phases, aerodynamic coefficients, non-propulsive avionics energy consumption, and weather modifications.

The model formulation integrates base propulsion equations, wind effects, and rain induced thrust degradation. Key UAV design parameters are specified, covering platform specs, mission variables, and operational ranges.

Sensitivity analysis ranks the relative influence of each factor on total mission energy draw. Monte Carlo simulations propagate input uncertainties through probability distributions, that generates output distributions for total energy use, and failure probabilities. Results identify critical thresholds and provide probabilistic risk profiles for urban drone operations.